gilboa.blog

Data-driven analysis of US inflation, jobs, GDP, and Fed policy. Clear charts and commentary on CPI, PCE, FOMC, and labor market trends.

July FOMC Minutes: Many Officials Saw Hikes If Inflation Does Not Cool

economics
inflation
federal reserve
data visualization
labor market

Three members dissented for a 25 bp hike while the Committee held 3.50-3.75%. After the meeting, payrolls fell 23k and CPI rose 0.1%; futures still treated a September hold as the base case.

Aug 21, 2026
Yoram Gilboa

July CPI and PPI Soften After Weak Jobs: Dual-Mandate Space Opens for September

economics
inflation
labor market
federal reserve
data visualization

July CPI rose 0.1% and final-demand PPI was unchanged after July payrolls fell 23,000, reducing immediate pressure for another Fed hike.

Aug 14, 2026
Yoram Gilboa
Monthly ADP private payroll changes and their three-month average through July 2026

July ADP: Only 44k Jobs, 82% from Education & Health

economics
labor market
federal reserve
data visualization
inflation

ADP private payrolls rose just 44,000 in July, with 82% of the gain in one sector. BLS later showed a net loss after revisions.

Aug 7, 2026
Yoram Gilboa

Q2 GDP Slowed to 1.5%, but Private Demand Accelerated to 3.9%

economics
inflation
data visualization
federal reserve

Q2 real GDP rose just 1.5%, but private domestic demand accelerated to 3.9%. Full breakdown of the advance estimate and June PCE.

Jul 30, 2026
Yoram Gilboa

June 2026 PPI: Energy Relief Confirmed Upstream, but Core Goods and Pipeline Pressure Remain

economics
inflation
data visualization
federal reserve

June PPI showed that the energy relief seen in CPI also arrived upstream, but core goods and pipeline pressure stayed firm.

Jul 25, 2026
Yoram Gilboa

Kimi K3, Open Weights, and Sovereign AI: A Plain-English Guide

technology
data visualization
markets

Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 pushes open-weight models toward the closed frontier. What that means for open source, distillation, business strategy, regulation, and sovereign AI.

Jul 25, 2026
Yoram Gilboa

June 2026 CPI: Energy Prices Plunge After Ceasefire, but Core and Shelter Pressures Linger

economics
inflation
energy
federal reserve
labor market
data visualization

June CPI fell as energy and gasoline prices reversed, while broader inflation measures and shelter showed a slower path back to 2 percent.

Jul 18, 2026
Yoram Gilboa

Core Inflation Persistence: What the July 14 CPI Release Will Test in Services ex-Shelter, Goods, and Shelter

economics
inflation
data visualization
federal reserve

Ahead of the July 14 CPI release, the key test is whether services ex-shelter momentum remains firm while goods disinflation and shelter deceleration continue to offset core persistence.

Jul 11, 2026
Yoram Gilboa

June 2026 Jobs Report: Soft Payroll Gains, Labor Force Drop, and Implications for Fed Policy

economics
labor market
federal reserve
data visualization

June payroll growth slowed sharply, unemployment dipped only because participation fell, and the combination raises the policy tradeoffs facing the Fed after a hawkish June dot plot.

Jul 3, 2026
Yoram Gilboa

June 2026 Labor Market Dashboard: Strong May Payrolls vs. Slower Hiring Signals

labor market
economics
data visualization

A June 2026 labor market dashboard using May payrolls, April JOLTS, and weekly claims to separate headline resilience from slower hiring-flow signals.

Jun 27, 2026
Yoram Gilboa
Strip-plot comparison of the March and June 2026 SEP dot distributions for the end-2026 federal funds rate, with medians and the current target-range midpoint highlighted.

The June 2026 FOMC Dot Plot: A 40 Basis Point Hawkish Shift, With Rates on Hold

economics
federal reserve
fomc
interest rates
inflation
labor market

The June 17 FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%, but the median end-2026 dot jumped 40 basis points to 3.8% and nine participants now project at least one hike. A read of the SEP, the data behind it, and the gap to market pricing.

Jun 20, 2026
Yoram Gilboa

May 2026 CPI: Energy Shock From Iran War Tests Core CPI Stability - Passthrough Analysis and Implications

economics
inflation
energy
federal reserve
data visualization

May 2026 CPI put headline inflation at +4.2% with energy up +23.0% and gasoline up +40.5%, while core held at +2.8% and core momentum cooled. A passthrough check before the June FOMC.

Jun 13, 2026
Yoram Gilboa
Six-panel labor market dashboard showing payrolls, unemployment, JOLTS quits, initial claims, job openings, and CES vs ADP private payroll growth through May 2026.

May 2026 Jobs Report: Labor Market Stabilization at +172k

economics
labor market
labor market breadth
data visualization
federal reserve

May 2026 payrolls printed +172k, well above the +80k consensus but within sampling error, with gains concentrated in three acyclical sectors (health care, government, leisure). Full dashboard analysis of the trend, sectors, wages, JOLTS, claims, and implications for the June FOMC.

Jun 6, 2026
Yoram Gilboa

Q1 2026 GDP Revision: Consumer Pullback Meets AI Investment Surge

economics
data analysis
data visualization
federal reserve
markets

The BEA’s second estimate revised Q1 2026 GDP growth down to 1.6% from 2.0%, revealing a consumer spending deceleration offset by the strongest equipment investment quarter since 2021.

May 29, 2026
Yoram Gilboa

May 2026 Energy Shock Update: Gasoline Passthrough Testing Core CPI Stability

economics
inflation
energy
federal reserve
data visualization

April 2026 CPI showed a +3.8% headline rate, energy up +17.9% year over year, gasoline up +28.4%, and core CPI at +2.8%. The May setup is a passthrough test.

May 23, 2026
Yoram Gilboa

April 2026 CPI: When an Energy Shock Starts Testing the Core Story

economics
inflation
data visualization
markets
federal reserve
The release still begins with gasoline, but the audience that should pay closest attention is anyone pricing the path of inflation persistence. The April CPI report is not…
May 12, 2026

April 2026 Jobs Report: Soft Payrolls Follow March Rebound - What the Full Labor Dashboard Reveals

economics
labor market
data visualization
visualization

April 2026 jobs report shows +115k payrolls and 4.3% unemployment. Full dashboard analysis of revisions, sectors, wages, JOLTS, claims, and implications for the Fed and markets.

May 9, 2026
Yoram Gilboa

April 2026 FOMC: Dissents, Dots & a Widening Wedge

economics
federal reserve
interest rates
fomc
data visualization

April 2026 FOMC: rate hold, dissents, and a wider gap between the SEP dots and market-implied paths.

May 1, 2026
Yoram Gilboa

Line chart comparing the FOMC dot plot median path with shaded IQR against the market-implied federal funds rate path through 2028.

April 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Preview: Dot Plot and Market Rate Paths Reshuffled by CPI

fed-policy
interest-rates
fomc
interest-rate-outlook
The Federal Open Market Committee meets April 28-29, 2026 with the rate outlook at its most contested point since the cutting cycle began. For investors tracking the April…
Apr 25, 2026

March 2026 CPI: Energy Shock, Core Stability

Gasoline drove the biggest monthly jump since 2022, but core stayed steady. What it means for rates, wallets, and markets.
economics
inflation
data visualization
markets
federal reserve

Gasoline drove March 2026 CPI sharply higher, but core inflation stayed steady. What the report means for Fed policy, consumers, and markets.

Apr 18, 2026

Visualizing the March 2026 Jobs Rebound: What the Claims Data Already Told Us

What the claims data already told us - and how the March Employment Situation confirmed it.
economics
labor market
data analysis
data visualization
The signal heading into the April 3 release was unambiguous - and it played out exactly as the data previewed. In my March 29 post, low initial jobless claims and the BTOS po…
Apr 6, 2026

What Claims Data Tells Us Before the April Jobs Report

Initial and continuing claims paint a clear picture heading into April 3: layoffs are not the problem.
economics
data analysis
data visualization
labor market
The March employment situation report drops on April 3, 2026, and the question on everyone’s mind is whether February’s payroll miss was a blip or the start of something…
Mar 29, 2026

Visualizing the March 2026 BTOS: Stable Revenues, Cautious Hiring

The business survey tells the same story as the jobs miss, from the employer’s side of the table.
economics
data analysis
data visualization
Two weeks after the February payroll miss, the Census Bureau’s Business Trends and Outlook Survey1 (BTOS) offers the view from the other side of the hiring decision. The…
Mar 22, 2026

When the Labor Market Slows Without Breaking

Weak payrolls, low claims, and sticky inflation paint a picture of uneven cooling, not collapse.
economics
data analysis
inflation
Last week delivered three economic releases that, at the headline level, seemed to contradict each other. Nonfarm payrolls fell by -92,000 in February 2026. Initial jobless…
Mar 15, 2026

The Great Inflation Divergence: Why Core PPI Exploded While CPI Stayed Cool

PPI and CPI told two very different stories in January 2026. One calmed the markets. The other blindsided them.
economics
inflation
data analysis
On February 13, 2026, the Consumer Price Index for January landed soft: headline +0.2% month-over-month1 (below the +0.3% consensus), core +0.3% (in line), headline…
Mar 1, 2026

Visualizing Supreme Court Alliances

The IEEPA Tariff Ruling and Justice Voting Patterns in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump
supreme court
data visualization
law
politics
On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court delivered one of its most consequential rulings in years. In Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump (consolidated with Trump v. V.O.S.…
Feb 22, 2026

US Inflation Is Cooling Off: Here’s What the Numbers Really Say

economics
data analysis
inflation
US consumer prices rose 2.8% year-over-year in January 2026, down from 3.0% in December, the lowest reading since July 2025. Core CPI ticked up to 2.9%. But the real story…
Feb 16, 2026

Setting Up My Data Science Blog

meta
visualization
python
This is my first post on my new Quarto-based blog. I’ll be sharing data visualizations and predictive modeling work here.
Feb 1, 2025

P&C Severity CPI: A Claims-Weighted Inflation Index

economics
inflation
visualization
insurance

A claims-weighted inflation index that reweights BLS CPI components to better track P&C insurance severity costs than CPI-U.

Feb 1, 2025
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