gilboa-blog – Yoram Gilboa

May 2026 Energy Shock Update: Gasoline Passthrough Testing Core CPI Stability

economics

inflation

energy

federal reserve

data visualization

April 2026 CPI showed a +3.8% headline rate, energy up +17.9% year over year, gasoline up +28.4%, and core CPI at +2.8%. The May setup is a passthrough test.

April 2026 CPI: When an Energy Shock Starts Testing the Core Story

economics

inflation

data visualization

markets

federal reserve

The release still begins with gasoline, but the audience that should pay closest attention is anyone pricing the path of inflation persistence. The April CPI report is not…

April 2026 Jobs Report: Soft Payrolls Follow March Rebound - What the Full Labor Dashboard Reveals

economics

labor-market

data-visualization

visualization

April 2026 jobs report shows +115k payrolls and 4.3% unemployment. Full dashboard analysis of revisions, sectors, wages, JOLTS, claims, and implications for the Fed and markets.

April 2026 FOMC: Dissents, Dots & a Widening Wedge

economics

federal reserve

interest rates

fomc

data visualization

The Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75% on April 29, 2026 and recorded 2 dissents favoring a 25 bp cut. The Summary of Economic…

April 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Preview: Dot Plot and Market Rate Paths Reshuffled by CPI

fed-policy

interest-rates

fomc

interest-rate-outlook

The Federal Open Market Committee meets April 28-29, 2026 with the rate outlook at its most contested point since the cutting cycle began. For investors tracking the April…

March 2026 CPI: Energy Shock, Core Stability

Gasoline drove the biggest monthly jump since 2022, but core stayed steady. What it means for rates, wallets, and markets.

economics

inflation

data visualization

markets

federal reserve

Gasoline drove March 2026 CPI sharply higher, but core inflation stayed steady. What the report means for Fed policy, consumers, and markets.

Visualizing the March 2026 Jobs Rebound: What the Claims Data Already Told Us

What the claims data already told us - and how the March Employment Situation confirmed it.

economics

labor market

data analysis

data visualization

The signal heading into the April 3 release was unambiguous - and it played out exactly as the data previewed. In my March 29 post, low initial jobless claims and the BTOS po…

What Claims Data Tells Us Before the April Jobs Report

Initial and continuing claims paint a clear picture heading into April 3: layoffs are not the problem.

economics

data analysis

data visualization

labor market

The March employment situation report drops on April 3, 2026, and the question on everyone’s mind is whether February’s payroll miss was a blip or the start of something…

Visualizing the March 2026 BTOS: Stable Revenues, Cautious Hiring

The business survey tells the same story as the jobs miss, from the employer’s side of the table.

economics

data analysis

data visualization

Two weeks after the February payroll miss, the Census Bureau’s Business Trends and Outlook Survey¹ (BTOS) offers the view from the other side of the hiring decision. The…

When the Labor Market Slows Without Breaking

Weak payrolls, low claims, and sticky inflation paint a picture of uneven cooling, not collapse.

economics

data analysis

inflation

Last week delivered three economic releases that, at the headline level, seemed to contradict each other. Nonfarm payrolls fell by -92,000 in February 2026. Initial jobless…

Behind the February 2026 Jobs Miss: Visualizing Strikes, Storms, and Global Shocks

The US economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, the worst monthly reading since late 2025. What happened?

economics

data analysis

data visualization

The US labor market delivered its worst monthly reading since October 2025: -92,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in February 2026, against a consensus expectation of +50,000. The…

The Great Inflation Divergence: Why Core PPI Exploded While CPI Stayed Cool

PPI and CPI told two very different stories in January 2026. One calmed the markets. The other blindsided them.

economics

inflation

data analysis

On February 13, 2026, the Consumer Price Index for January landed soft: headline +0.2% month-over-month¹ (below the +0.3% consensus), core +0.3% (in line), headline…

Visualizing Supreme Court Alliances

The IEEPA Tariff Ruling and Justice Voting Patterns in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump

supreme court

data visualization

law

politics

On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court delivered one of its most consequential rulings in years. In Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump (consolidated with Trump v. V.O.S.…

US Inflation Is Cooling Off: Here’s What the Numbers Really Say

economics

data analysis

inflation

US consumer prices rose 2.8% year-over-year in January 2026, down from 3.0% in December, the lowest reading since July 2025. Core CPI ticked up to 2.9%. But the real story…

P&C Severity CPI: A Claims-Weighted Inflation Index

actuarial

inflation

visualization

insurance

The standard Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) is designed to measure inflation for typical household consumption. But for Property & Casualty insurance actuaries, it…

Setting Up My Data Science Blog

meta

visualization

python

This is my first post on my new Quarto-based blog. I’ll be sharing data visualizations and predictive modeling work here.